Bank of Canada rate decisions and your mortgage renewal

The Bank of Canada's decision dates

The Bank of Canada announces its policy rate on eight fixed dates each year, published well ahead, and four of them come with a Monetary Policy Report, its fuller outlook (source: Bank of Canada, checked October 2026). The next decision date is highlighted below, with the full 2026 and 2027 schedule:

Where the policy rate stands

The policy rate is the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate, the rate at which banks lend to each other for a day. The policy rate is not a mortgage rate.

A rate published by the Bank of Canada, not a quote: when we checked on November 2, 2026, the policy rate was 2.50%, last changed on October 28, 2026, when the Bank of Canada raised it by 0.25 percentage points (source: Bank of Canada). The Bank of Canada's own page always has the current policy rate.

What a rate decision means for your mortgage or HELOC

On a variable rate or a HELOC

Variable mortgage rates and HELOC rates generally follow the lender's prime, and prime generally follows the policy rate. When the Bank of Canada changes its rate, banks have generally changed prime by the same amount within a day or so, and a variable rate moves with prime.

Whether your payment changes depends on whether your variable mortgage has an adjustable or a fixed payment. Our prime rate page explains both kinds of payment.

Illustrative, not a quote: a 0.25 percentage point change in prime on a $400,000 variable balance changes interest by about $1,000 a year ($400,000 × 0.25 ÷ 100), roughly $83 a month at first. The payment shock tool shows what a rate change would mean for your payment.

On a fixed rate

Lenders generally set fixed rates from their own funding costs, which tend to track bond yields more closely than the policy rate. Bond yields often move on what markets expect the Bank of Canada to do, before the Bank acts.

A policy-rate cut on decision day does not necessarily lower the fixed rate in your renewal letter. A decision to hold the policy rate does not necessarily keep your renewal rate where it is.

If your renewal is close to a decision date

The reply-by date on your renewal letter does not wait for the Bank of Canada. Federally regulated lenders must send a renewal statement at least 21 days before your term ends (source: Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, checked October 2026).

A rate hold, which commonly runs 90 to 120 days, can protect you if rates rise while you compare. Many borrowers ask their lender whether the held rate would come down if rates fall before closing.

Comparing fixed and variable on the same day is more useful than guessing the next decision. The fixed vs variable tool compares fixed and variable side by side.

What a rate decision does not mean

No one can promise where rates will go: not the Bank of Canada, not a lender and not us. A single decision is not a forecast, and a renewal chosen to bet on the next decision can go either way.

The Bank of Canada's decision-day statement explains its reasons; the statement does not tell you what your own lender will offer.

A Bank of Canada decision does not change the terms of a fixed-rate mortgage you already have. Your rate and payment stay the same until the term ends.

Our note after each Bank of Canada decision

We plan a short, plain-English note after each decision: what changed, what the change generally means for variable payments, HELOCs and fixed-rate renewals, and what to ask your lender. The note will not predict the next decision or quote a rate on offer.

Sources

• Bank of Canada — Policy interest rate (schedule and current rate), checked 2026-10-26.
• Bank of Canada — Valet API, series V80691311 (Prime rate) and V39079 (overnight rate target), fetched 2026-10-24.
• Financial Consumer Agency of Canada — Renewing your mortgage, page dated 2025-10-15, checked 2026-10-26.

What to do next

If your renewal falls near a decision date, enter your offer in the offer check, then send us the numbers. A licensed broker compares your offer with what the lenders we work with are offering this week, fixed and variable, and replies within one business day.